And They're Off
The deed has finally been done. A real, honest-to-goodness non-confidence motion has been brought forward. It is believed to be the first such motion since 1963, although other governments have fallen over budgets. It is expected to be passed by the House of Commons on Monday. Let the holiday election season begin! The campaign is sure to have everything except peace on Earth and goodwill toward men. This will be one nasty campaign. The Swift Boat Mercenaries for Smear should sit by the phone and wait for the highest bidder, since they're not up to much these days.
All signs point to an election in mid-January, probably the 16th or 23rd. And if you listen to enough "expert" analysis, you really have no clue about how things will turn out. The recent polls show that the Liberals have bounced back a bit after taking an initial hit following the release of the Gomery Report. But you really have to wonder how solid their support is. When elections are close, it all comes down to turnout and motivation, and it remains to be seen how motivated the Liberal supporters will be to return them. There's no denying that the opposition is angry, and anger is a huge motivator come election time. That was true in the U.S. last year as well, but Karl Rove and the Republican machine were brilliant enough to make gay marriage a ballot issue in enough states to energize a deflated base. It remains to be seen if the Liberal strategists have a cause celebre up their sleeves to have the same effect.
We all know about Gomery and the issues of corruption and scandal. Many on the Right in this country are dismayed at the seeming lack of outrage from the general public, and on that point I am in agreement with them. But the Liberals ought to be highly concerned about a new poll that says a desire for change is a greater motivator than concern over scandals. And this is where the Conservatives have to tread carefully. Their campaign has to be the right balance between reminding Canadians about the ugliness of the Liberal government and enticing them with ideas for the future. If the polling data is to be believed, the majority of Canadians want to hear more of the latter. There is also great opportunity for the NDP to show that they are the right choice for the Left vote, because they are the party that truly represents "liberal" values.
How do I see this playing out? I have a feeling the Liberal support is too soft for them to hold onto power. While I am not a fan of the total Conservative agenda, I have resigned myself to the fact that their getting elected won't be the end of the world. Until the Liberals can purge themselves of all remnants of corruption and, indeed, the "culture of entitlement", they have worn out their welcome in power. Maybe a good ass-whipping is what they need, a la the 1993 Tories. If the Conservatives do win, I hope the NDP will pick up some seats and be a strong enough opposition to keep the government honest. The Conservatives might very well break through for some seats in 905 and gain a foothold in Ontario - but they will not be able to hold onto that foothold if they prove to be too extreme. Unless they govern from the centre, their power will be short-lived. A Conservative minority would probably be the best thing for their party, if not for the country. That's what I see happening, even if Ralph Klein doesn't. I wouldn't even be surprised to see them win a majority. But don't take that to the bank.
posted by Jaymeister at 11/24/2005 10:28:00 p.m.
23 Comments:
I agree with you Jay that Canadians are ready for a change regardless of Gomery. For twelve years the Libs have given Canadians exactly what they want, Conservative budgets with Liberal wrapping paper that is quickly thrown away (recycled?). They have made (tricked) Canadians into thinking that they are really really really generous people all the while getting the nasty job of fiscal house cleaning finished (it was started by Mr. Mulroney although little or no credit is afforded him).
Now, unfortunately for them they are losing their grip on the fiscally prudent. Their recent largesse comes off as a completely transparent and weak attempt to satiate all people of all political stripes. As we know, this is both impossible and dangerous.
Their soft right support will be gleaned from them this time and and the betrayal of the NDP (basically ripping up their joint budget a month after compramising on one) plus corruption and ties to big business is going to be a crippling blow on the left.
I like you am hopeful for a cleaning of the basement. I'd like to see the Liberals reduced to a score of seats with only the truly talented members getting a call back (Graham, McLelland, Dion, etc....John Manley where are you now?)
Good analysis Jay.
Jay... I respectfully disagree.
A Conservative government would be the worst thing for this country.
Remember, many of the Mike Harrisites are backers of Harper and company.
If Harper wins, we'll see a swift deconstruction of the many programs that Canadians hold dear.
Under Harper, health care will be dismantled. University will become even more out of reach for many Canadians. Transit, housing and the environment will crumble.
But the Conrad Blacks of the world will rejoice. Banks will merge, layoff of thousands... while insurance companies will record more record profits at our expense.
Worst of all, Canada will return to the deficit years of Brian Mulroney.
Is this what we really want?
Martin's clan may be crooks, but at least they won't destroy the country.
Mustard,
While I fear some of those things happening, I believe they would be political suicide for the Conservatives. They can't dismantle all these programs without losing their support in Ontario and elsewhere. It would make them party non-grata. I really believe that they will move toward the centre, especially if they are a minority government. I hope the Liberals clean themsleves up and actually become a liberal party. In the meantime, this is a great opportunity for the NDP to step up their national presence.
Be careful who you vote for. Remember what the Harris Neo-cons did to Ontario:
According to Pollution Probe, an environmental watchdog group, the Tories cut the MOE budget by $500 million in 1995. Staff were cut by 35%.
According to Pollution Probe, free trade (another Tory idea) increased the pressure on Canadian manufacturers which “increased their opposition to regulations that might increase costs, impose rigidity or result in delay.”
For more on the dangers of Harper's agenda, read this:
http://www.straightgoods.ca/Election2004/ViewNews.cfm?Ref=69
And finally, Germany is a good example of what Canadians can expect if they elect Conservatives:
BERLIN -- New German Chancellor Angela Merkel (AHN-gehl-ah MEHR-kehl) is pledging to strengthen relations with the United States.
In an interview to be published tomorrow in "Focus" magazine, Merkel promises that Berlin will have "a more intensive" relationship with Washington.
Neo-conservatives never move towards the centre. Look at Bush. They merely move further right.
Under Harper, whose powerbase is in the west, do you think cities like Toronto would ever see money for highways or transit?
As "straight goods.ca" points out, Harper has said he will allow free votes on private member bills. That means open season on women's rights and capital punishment.
Harper would also have the right to make nominations to the Supreme Court. Very scary. Bible-thumpers coming to a bench near you.
Harper is as Neo-con as they come!
Be careful who you vote for!
I didn't say I'd vote for them, just that I think they are going to win. And I do share all of these concerns. But there would also be ramifications of another Liberal victory, in Quebec and also among hardline Western separatist movements. The Liberal corruption has put our country in a political pickle. At least if the Conservatives have a minority government, they will have no partners on the Right to support their whole agenda.
True. But imagine if we elected a strong block (no pun intended) of New Democrats from Ontario.
This province would benefit greatly... especially Toronto.
You're right. I do hope that there is a strong NDP block elected.
This is rich!
Mustard Man you have been watching too many episodes of the X-files.
You complain about the policies of the Mike Harris government, however, they are a virtual mirror to the fiscal policies of Paul Martin (and both groups were re-elected on those policies. Give McGuinty another two years and Ontario will be begging for Mike Harris to return.)
"Under Harper, health care will be dismantled. University will become even more out of reach for many Canadians. Transit, housing and the environment will crumble."
Let's be clear. Martin goes to a private health clinic and refuses to enforce the Canada Health Act. Harper has already stated that he would defend the Canada Health Act and the transfer of monies to municipalities (The Liberal government is that one that beats the drum of centrist control).
"Banks will merge, layoff of thousands"
It is a Liberal policy to promote bank mergers and have seen them happen under their watch.
"BERLIN -- New German Chancellor Angela Merkel (AHN-gehl-ah MEHR-kehl) is pledging to strengthen relations with the United States"
And good relations with your neighbour and biggest trading partner are bad because......? Angela Merkel impacts on Canadian politics how? So right of centre governments all move for better relations to the US. Wow, someone should have told that to Jacques Chirac.
Jaymeister, I cannot believe that you do not challenge Mustard on any of these hysterical, unfounded, hyperbolic ridiculous statements. Jay = nice guy who doesn't want to hurt Mustard Man's feelings.
For pete's sake he brings up Conrad Black as a reason not to vote for the Tories????? Two completely unrelated topics.
And he mentions Gomery as a reason not to vote for the "Conservatives"??!!? Yah, their the ones that embezzled millions of dollars, betrayed public trust, broke election laws, broke tax laws (paid cash under the table), and the list goes on and on.
Mustard, you a useless hack who doesn't even research his statements.
I agree with the notion of more Dippers in parliament....at least they are a party that believes in something, same as the Conservatives.
The Liberals only believe in themselves and the perpetuity of their rule.
"Mustard, you a useless hack who doesn't even research his statements." (sic)
Wow! Great grammar there, Trap. You must have earned top marks in the North Bay school system.
Were you classmates with John Snobelen? When he was in class?
As for believing Harper when he (quote) "has already stated that he would defend the Canada Health Act" - well, that's like believing Peter MacKay when he said he would't merge parties with the Reform-Alliance!
(Count your fingers after shaking hands with that guy...)
You say someone should have told Jacques Chirac about better relations with the US. Why? So French soldiers could get blown up in Iraq every day too?
Actually Trap, despite your personal attack, I do agree with your criticisms of Martin.
That's why people should vote NDP!
Jaymeister's Jabberings encourages vigorous debate on any and all issues presented. And while I see that going on, I just want to make sure that the line of civility isn't crossed. Mustard and NBT are both friends of mine, from opposite sides. I will likely vote with Mustard, but my discussions with NBT usually appeal to both our more moderate sides. My moderate side says that some of the concerns about Harper are hyberbolic, but many of them are legitimate for those of us on the Left. I don't think the Canadian population, as a whole, has reached the tipping point of acceptance of a "conservative" agenda, so that's why I think Harper wouldn't be a zealot upon gaining power. But if he survives the subsequent election, all bets are off.
My apologies for my most recent post, I had just gotten off of Kinsella's site and was extra feisty. I meant no disrepect to the MustardMan or you Jay, I was just unable to shift gears from the "pissing contest" that goes on over at Kinsella's comment board. Upon further review I would retract all of the sarkiness and keep the rebuttal. hehe
On your point of Canadians not being ready for Conservatism again. I would argue that Western Canada has shown that it is more than ready, I would argue that the Liberals have been Conservatives for 12 years, I would argue that 7 of the 10 provinces are led by conservative governments (some call themselves Liberal but they are cons), I would argue that although unemployment is low that worker confidence is in the tank. The only nuts I think the Cons will have trouble cracking is the Maritimes because of their handouts and Quebec, which can be won over by offering to respect provincial powers, jurisdiction and the ability for them to tax as they see fit. (I'm all for competition between the provinces).
Ontario is in a fog and remains the wildcard. Everyone votes the way their father did which could spell bad news for both your party and mine.
Jay... nice refereeing.
Trap... no offense taken. I know I'm a hack, I just don't like when people point it out. ;)
I am one person who does not vote the way my father does. He's Tory through and through... (well, at least he was, until Harris took away his free presciptions).
Trap... not all of Western Canada is Tory. I lived in Saskatchewan, where there is still a very popular NDP government. (They actually threw out Devine and his big-spending Tories).
They and Manitoba's NDP government walk an excellent balance between fiscal prudence and social responsibility.
Why shouldn't Layton be given the chance to do this federally?
The biggest misconception about the NDP is that it is big spending. Usually, it's the Conservatives (and many Liberals) who are the big spenders.
Witness the deficits left by Mulroney, Trudeau, Eves and Devine.
(Ok, I'll accept Bob Rae here too. But he inherited much of that debt during a worldwide recession...)
Tommy Douglas governed Saskatchewan for 17 years without a deficit! And he brought in some of the best policies in our country's history!
Some wit from the Greatest Canadian, Tommy Douglas:
This is the story of a place called Mouseland. Mouseland was a place where all the little mice lived and played, were born and died. And they lived much the same as you and I do.
They even had a Parliament. And every four years they had an election. Used to walk to the polls and cast their ballots. Some of them even got a ride to the polls. And got a ride for the next four years afterwards too. Just like you and me. And every time on election day all the little mice used to go to the ballot box and they used to elect a government. A government made up of big, fat, black cats.
Now if you think it strange that mice should elect a government made up of cats, you just look at the history of Canada for last 90 years and maybe you'll see that they weren't any stupider than we are.
Now I'm not saying anything against the cats. They were nice fellows. They conducted their government with dignity. They passed good laws--that is, laws that were good for cats. But the laws that were good for cats weren't very good for mice. One of the laws said that mouseholes had to be big enough so a cat could get his paw in. Another law said that mice could only travel at certain speeds--so that a cat could get his breakfast without too much effort.
All the laws were good laws. For cats. But, oh, they were hard on the mice. And life was getting harder and harder. And when the mice couldn't put up with it any more, they decided something had to be done about it. So they went en masse to the polls. They voted the black cats out. They put in the white cats.
Now the white cats had put up a terrific campaign. They said: "All that Mouseland needs is more vision." They said:"The trouble with Mouseland is those round mouseholes we got. If you put us in we'll establish square mouseholes." And they did. And the square mouseholes were twice as big as the round mouseholes, and now the cat could get both his paws in. And life was tougher than ever.
And when they couldn't take that anymore, they voted the white cats out and put the black ones in again. Then they went back to the white cats. Then to the black cats. They even tried half black cats and half white cats. And they called that coalition. They even got one government made up of cats with spots on them: they were cats that tried to make a noise like a mouse but ate like a cat.
You see, my friends, the trouble wasn't with the colour of the cat. The trouble was that they were cats. And because they were cats, they naturally looked after cats instead of mice.
Presently there came along one little mouse who had an idea. My friends, watch out for the little fellow with an idea. And he said to the other mice, "Look fellows, why do we keep on electing a government made up of cats? Why don't we elect a government made up of mice?" "Oh," they said, "he's a Bolshevik. Lock him up!" So they put him in jail.
But I want to remind you: that you can lock up a mouse or a man but you can't lock up an idea.
The Moral of the Story
"Mouseland" is a political fable, originally told by Clare Gillis, a friend of Tommy Douglas. Tommy has used this story many times to show in a humorous way how Canadians fail to recognize that neither the Liberals or Conservatives are truly interested in what matters to ordinary citizens; yet Canadians continue to vote for them.
/kudos for Mustard
spoken like a man who believes in an ideal and not a party which is a rarity these days.
Big spending Conservative governments are not conservative. Mulroney inhereted a deficit that was 18% of GDP and reduced it to 3%. It was his framework that allowed the Libranos to balance the sheets in the years following. Mulroney's last two years of corruption and pork barrelling deserved him and the PC's a well-deserved kick in the teeth.
I believe that the systems we believe in both work. They may have diffenet societies, with different values and different outlooks, but they do work. When it doesn't work, and by this I mean democracy, is when corruption hit 'em with the right.
one last personal note: the only time the NDP is going to be a player nationally, is when they can appeal to those outside of the union towns and the slum districts. A tough sell without forgetting your base.
The problem is, Conservatives and Liberals have to pay for those tax cuts. They do that by cutting programs that benefit everyone.
I agree that the NDP has to broaden its base. But again, you're thinking like an Ontarian.
New Democrats fill many "regular" seats across the prairies... not just union towns and slums. And fiscal prudence has ALWAYS been at the heart of social democracy.
This is from the SaskNDP website (Jay, sorry for the long posts):
"In analyzing CCF and NDP governments, one thing that is often overlooked is the commitment they have shown to solid fiscal management. The CCF and NDP have simply not run budget deficits.
As a matter of fact, one of the things that led to the eventual demise of the Liberals in the 1940's was the fact that they had continued to run deficits and Saskatchewan had become a debt ridden province. One of the first things Douglas and the CCF did after coming to power was to clean up the province's finances and balance the books.
It was only after doing this that a vast array of social programs followed. Social democracy simply never would have survived in Saskatchewan without fiscal responsibility. Fiscal prudence and balanced budgets continued to be an NDP trademark during the Blakeney years.
However, in nine short years, Grant Devine and the Conservatives turned what had become a Saskatchewan tradition of solid fiscal management on its head. The Conservatives were the most fiscally irresponsible government in Saskatchewan history running deficits every year they were in power.
By the end of the 1980's, these deficits were ballooning to close to a billion dollars each year. As a result, Saskatchewan was saddled with a crushing debt and it struggled just to service the interest payments on this debt while sacrificing social programs.
In short, Saskatchewan was on the verge of bankruptcy and this was the situation Roy Romanow walked into after the NDP was returned to power in 1991."
"The problem is, Conservatives and Liberals have to pay for those tax cuts."
I respectfully disagree. Mike Harris lowered taxes and government revenues increased. They increased so much that he was able to cover the deficit left by the Federal Liberals and slash of transfer payments and at the same time raise the amount of money spent per capita on Healthcare and that includes adjustments for inflation.
Tax cuts generate wealth. Taxes only distribute it.
imo Tommy Douglas is not our greatest Canadian (not by a long shot).
I see this eroding away into a right/left arguement. Let us agree that we both hold our beliefs close to our hearts and that the Liberal Party is not fit to govern.
I see this eroding away into a right/left arguement.
And isn't that the point?
vote Conservative......save your money
Yeah, save your money... you'll need it for user fees coming soon.
Just like the user fees in Finland where your dental, physio, eye care, eyeglasses, chiro and prescriptions are covered by the government.
You want to see health care that blows ours away take a look at Switzerland, Belgium, Finland or Sweden.
Hello, I do not agree with the previous commentator - not so simple
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