Wednesday, January 04, 2006

...And Tightens Some More

The news appears to be getting better for the Conservatives. As the Liberal government is more and more exposed over the course of the campaign, the polls have definitely tilted in the other direction. The ominous number for the Liberals is that they only have a 3 point lead in Ontario - a statistical tie. That could spell big-time trouble for them on election day.

Here is how Ontarians would vote (percentage change from a Dec. 20-22 poll in brackets):
Liberals: 37 per cent (-10)
Conservatives: 34 per cent (+1)
NDP: 21 per cent (+5)
Greens: 8 per cent (+4)
As I said yesterday, it isn't Conservative support but rather NDP support that will do them in. Ontarians aren't buying the Tories as much as they are abandoning the Liberals for alternatives on the Left, as you can see by the gains for the NDP and Green Party. (The relatively strong support for the Greens in Ontario and BC is great news for the Tories, and a thorn in the NDP's side.)

Now that the campaign is really heating up, the parties are stepping up their dueling promises. None of them will tell you how they will pay for their initiatives, but why let details get in the way of a strong message? Because the ideas are great in principle. Both the Grits and Tories want to cut or eliminate the immigration landing fee. Who could argue with that? The Liberals want to invest more in making college and university accessible to all Canadians. I believe that should be a given, because that is the definition of "equality of opportunity". Nobody should be denied the realization of their full potential because they weren't born into the right family, or because they didn't want to endure a lifetime of debt. The NDP has proposed a new prescription drug subsidy plan, which might be a key carrot for their support of a minority government. And all parties want to put more money into health care to reduce waiting times. The question is how the bills will be paid. Even the best of Liberal plans have to be taken with a grain of salt, since they didn't bother to propose anything of the sort of the past twelve years in power and when they had the surpluses. Now they want to cut taxes and increase spending, so you do the math. But the Tories plan to do the same, although with different tax cuts and different spending, and it still doesn't add up.

I really believe that given the right kind of services, Canadians are willing to pay a fairly steep tax rate. But the parties are trying to have it both ways. I guess that's what makes them politicians. I think my abacus will be working overtime the next eighteen days.

3 Comments:

Blogger NorthBayTrapper said...

Conservatives just announced that their budget is in the black and have independent verification. (see www.conservative.ca)


As to this statement I really believe that given the right kind of services, Canadians are willing to pay a fairly steep tax rate.

The leftish Ontario voted back to back Mike Harris Governments. McGuinty could only be elected by lying about tax increases.
No one wants to pay more tax. If folks want to give more of their hard earned money to those who need it....it's called CHARITY, which ironically affords you a tax credit.

1/08/2006 11:41:00 p.m.  
Blogger Jaymeister said...

The key phrase is "right kind of services". If people feel they are being ripped off, as they have been by the Liberals, you can't blame them for wanting lower taxes. Who wants to pay taxes when the money isn't well spent? But if Canadians think they are getting bang for the buck, and services that are of benefit to them, they are willing to accept the tax burden.

1/09/2006 11:01:00 a.m.  
Blogger NorthBayTrapper said...

Not so. You have 30 million individuals in this country. The only thing that 30 million people would agree on is that they want more money to spend and less people telling them what to do (save the masochists).
To put your argument another way. Would people pay $50 to see a movie if it meant valet service at the door, a coat check, the Wiggles performing in the lobby, imported butter from Belgium on their popcorn and heated seats? If anyone would actually go and see a film under those circumstances, it would be only once. No adult can stand the Wiggles more than once...

1/09/2006 11:36:00 a.m.  

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